Polish Ekstraklasa, round 10 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Pogoń Szczecin — Korona Kielce
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Pogoń Szczecin to win (50%), came true.
Pogoń Szczecin are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Pogoń Szczecin are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pogoń Szczecin — Korona Kielce What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| Pogoń Szczecin not to lose | 78% | |
| Korona Kielce not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Piast Gliwice2:1
- 13.09Wieczysta Kraków2:0
- 07.09Wisła Płock1:1
- 29.08away · Zagłębie Lubin0:0
- 23.08Wisła Kraków2:2
- 19.09Raków Częstochowa3:2
- 15.09Górnik Zabrze0:2
- 12.09away · Śląsk Wrocław2:1
- 05.09Wisła Kraków1:1
- 28.08away · Wisła Płock2:0
Head to head
- 16.03.2026Pogoń Szczecin — Korona Kielce2:1
- 13.09.2025Korona Kielce — Pogoń Szczecin1:0
- 09.12.2024Korona Kielce — Pogoń Szczecin0:0
- 20.07.2024Pogoń Szczecin — Korona Kielce3:0
- 17.03.2024Korona Kielce — Pogoń Szczecin2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Lech Poznań | 9 | 7 | +13 | 22 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 9 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 10 | 6 | +7 | 18 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zagłębie Lubin | 10 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
Next matches
- GKS KatowicePogoń Szczecin17 October · Ekstraklasa3930311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Lech PoznańKorona Kielce18 October · Ekstraklasa7119101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.1
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 4231271The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.4
- 5027221The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →