EFL Championship, round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Portsmouth — Millwall
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Portsmouth 36%, Millwall 34%, draw 29%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Portsmouth — Millwall What is xG? | 1.3–1.2 | |
| Portsmouth not to lose | 66% | |
| Millwall not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Portsmouth
- Portsmouth goals
- Millwall goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Southampton0:1
- 19.09Blackburn Rovers2:2
- 12.09away · Charlton Athletic0:0
- 05.09Cardiff City2:0
- 01.09Derby County0:2
- 13.10Swansea City0:1
- 10.10away · Preston North End1:0
- 19.09West Ham United2:2
- 15.09away · Middlesbrough2:2
- 12.09away · Blackburn Rovers1:3
Head to head
- 21.02.2026Millwall — Portsmouth1:3
- 22.11.2025Portsmouth — Millwall3:1
- 05.04.2025Millwall — Portsmouth2:1
- 28.01.2025Portsmouth — Millwall0:1
- 13.08.2024Portsmouth — Millwall0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | -4 | 8 |
Championship on the same day
- Charlton AthleticNorwich Citypreliminary3229382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- Sheffield UnitedDerby Countypreliminary5127231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Blackburn RoversWrexhampreliminary4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- Cardiff CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.1
- Lincoln CityBurnleypreliminary3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- Preston North EndWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary3229382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- Queens Park RangersSwansea Citypreliminary4029321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Stoke CityBristol Citypreliminary363034XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →