EFL Championship, round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Sheffield United — Derby County
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sheffield United are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sheffield United are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sheffield United — Derby County What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Sheffield United not to lose | 77% | |
| Derby County not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
181 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sheffield United
- Sheffield United goals
- Derby County goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 10.10Lincoln City3:0
- 19.09away · Stoke City1:2
- 16.09away · Fleetwood Town0:1
- 13.09Wolverhampton Wanderers0:1
- 08.09away · Blackburn Rovers2:1
- 10.10Wrexham1:1
- 19.09away · Burnley1:1
- 12.09Birmingham City1:2
- 09.09West Bromwich Albion0:1
- 05.09away · West Ham United0:3
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Derby County — Sheffield United1:2
- 01.11.2025Sheffield United — Derby County1:3
- 01.02.2025Derby County — Sheffield United0:1
- 21.09.2024Sheffield United — Derby County1:0
- 15.01.2022Derby County — Sheffield United2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield United | 9 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 10 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
Championship on the same day
- Charlton AthleticNorwich Citypreliminary3229382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- PortsmouthMillwallpreliminary362934XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.5
- Blackburn RoversWrexhampreliminary4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- Cardiff CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.1
- Lincoln CityBurnleypreliminary3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- Preston North EndWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary3229382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- Queens Park RangersSwansea Citypreliminary4029321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Stoke CityBristol Citypreliminary363034XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →