Liga MX (Mexico), round 11 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Estadio Olímpico Universitario
Pumas — Cruz Azul
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3:3Missed
In short
Final score 3:3: the model's most likely outcome, Cruz Azul to win (40%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 40% fails in about 60 matches out of 100 on average.
Cruz Azul are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 30%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cruz Azul are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pumas — Cruz Azul What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Pumas not to lose | 60% | |
| Cruz Azul not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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Form
- 27.09Atlético de San Luis2:3
- 20.09away · Atlas1:1
- 14.09away · Chivas0:3
- 11.09León3:1
- 29.08away · Tijuana0:2
- 27.09Toluca3:3
- 20.09away · Monterrey0:1
- 13.09CF América4:3
- 07.09Santos Laguna1:0
- 29.08away · Necaxa3:1
Head to head
- 25.05.2026Pumas — Cruz Azul1:2
- 22.05.2026Cruz Azul — Pumas0:0
- 15.03.2026Pumas — Cruz Azul2:2
- 09.11.2025Cruz Azul — Pumas2:3
- 06.04.2025Cruz Azul — Pumas3:2
Table
Next matches
- AtlantePumas17 October · Liga MX4228311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- Cruz AzulFC Juárez18 October · Liga MX6919111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
Liga MX on the same day
- 5126231The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
- 5426191The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →