Uzbekistan Super League, round 25 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Qizilqum Zarafshon — Lokomotiv Tashkent
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lokomotiv Tashkent are slightly stronger: 45% against 27%, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lokomotiv Tashkent are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Qizilqum Zarafshon — No. 10, 30 pts; Lokomotiv Tashkent — No. 4, 38 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Qizilqum Zarafshon — Lokomotiv Tashkent What is xG? | 1.1–1.6 | |
| Qizilqum Zarafshon not to lose | 55% | |
| Lokomotiv Tashkent not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Qizilqum Zarafshon
- Qizilqum Zarafshon goals
- Lokomotiv Tashkent goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Surkhon-20110:0
- 21.09away · Xorazm3:1
- 10.09away · Dinamo Samarkand0:1
- 05.09Buxoro3:2
- 26.08Nasaf Qarshi1:0
- 11.10away · Sogdiana3:2
- 20.09Neftchi Fargona0:1
- 11.09Mashal Muborak3:0
- 04.09away · Navbahor Namangan1:1
- 26.08Bunyodkor Tashkent4:1
Head to head
- 04.05.2026Lokomotiv Tashkent — Qizilqum Zarafshon1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 23 | 13 | +18 | 45 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 23 | 11 | +9 | 38 |
| 5 | Nasaf Qarshi | 23 | 10 | +13 | 37 |
| 9 | Andijon | 23 | 9 | -2 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 23 | 9 | -7 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 23 | 8 | -6 | 28 |
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- Dinamo SamarkandAndijonpreliminary4527281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- AGMKKokand 1912preliminary4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →