Bundesliga, round 7 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
RB Leipzig — Elversberg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
RB Leipzig are clear favourites: 62% against 16% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings RB Leipzig are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: RB Leipzig — Elversberg What is xG? | 2.3–1.2 | |
| RB Leipzig not to lose | 84% | |
| Elversberg not to lose | 38% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig goals
- Elversberg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10PSV Eindhoven1:0
- 10.10Eintracht Frankfurt6:0
- 20.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:2
- 13.09Hamburger SV5:0
- 10.09away · Como1:4
- 10.10away · Union Berlin0:1
- 20.09away · Schalke 040:0
- 13.09Bayern München1:2
- 05.09away · Borussia Mönchengladbach4:3
- 29.08Bayer Leverkusen3:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Champions League | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | +6 | 10 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | +10 | 9 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- AugsburgUnion Berlinpreliminary393230XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:22.9
- 1. FC KölnSchalke 04preliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.1
- Mainz 05Werder Bremenpreliminary5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- PaderbornHamburger SVpreliminary343036XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
- Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurtpreliminary6920111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →