Segunda Division, round 9 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla
Real Valladolid — Albacete
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5:0Came true
In short
Final score 5:0: the model's most likely outcome, Real Valladolid to win (51%), came true.
Real Valladolid are clear favourites: 51% against 22% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Valladolid are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Real Valladolid — Albacete What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| Real Valladolid not to lose | 78% | |
| Albacete not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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- Handicap Real Valladolid
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- Albacete goals
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Form
- 04.10away · Las Palmas2:2
- 27.09Córdoba3:1
- 20.09away · AD Ceuta FC1:1
- 13.09Real Oviedo0:3
- 05.09FC Andorra1:0
- 03.10Eibar1:3
- 25.09away · Girona0:2
- 18.09Córdoba1:2
- 12.09away · Granada1:1
- 06.09away · Castellón0:2
Head to head
- 24.01.2026Real Valladolid — Albacete0:1
- 21.09.2025Albacete — Real Valladolid2:0
- 12.02.2024Real Valladolid — Albacete0:0
- 01.09.2023Albacete — Real Valladolid2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Granada | 9 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Real Valladolid | 9 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 21, Relegation | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | -12 | 5 |
| 22, Relegation | Albacete | 9 | 0 | -15 | 1 |
Next matches
- Sporting GijónAlbacete17 October · Segunda Division5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Real ValladolidEldense18 October · Segunda Division5425201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
Segunda Division on the same day
- 4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 333037XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →