Paraguayan Primera Division · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Estadio Ricardo Gregor
Recoleta — Libertad
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:2Came true
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Libertad to win (47%), came true.
Libertad are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Libertad are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Recoleta — Libertad What is xG? | 1.4–1.8 | |
| Recoleta not to lose | 53% | |
| Libertad not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Recoleta
- Recoleta goals
- Libertad goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 28.09away · Sportivo San Lorenzo0:0
- 21.09away · Luqueño0:1
- 13.09Sportivo Trinidense1:3
- 07.09away · Guaraní0:2
- 04.09Cerro Porteño1:3
- 29.09Olimpia0:1
- 19.09Sportivo Ameliano1:1
- 12.09away · 2 de Mayo2:0
- 06.09Rubio Ñú4:2
- 02.09away · Nacional (PAR)0:3
Head to head
- 31.07.2026Libertad — Recoleta4:1
- 31.03.2026Libertad — Recoleta1:0
- 03.02.2026Recoleta — Libertad2:1
- 27.10.2025Recoleta — Libertad2:2
- 11.08.2025Libertad — Recoleta1:1
Next matches
- LibertadGuaraní12 October · Paraguayan Primera4231271The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.3
- Nacional (PAR)Recoleta13 October · Paraguayan Primera6423131The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.9
Paraguayan Primera on the same day
- 6223151The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →