Major League Soccer (MLS), round 30 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Red Bull New York — Toronto FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Red Bull New York are clear favourites: 49% against 25% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Red Bull New York are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Red Bull New York — No. 18, 36 pts; Toronto FC — No. 23, 32 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Red Bull New York 3 wins, Toronto FC 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Red Bull New York — Toronto FC What is xG? | 1.8–1.3 | |
| Red Bull New York not to lose | 75% | |
| Toronto FC not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Red Bull New York
- Red Bull New York goals
- Toronto FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 11.10San Diego FC4:1
- 01.10St. Louis City0:3
- 19.09away · New York City FC1:0
- 13.09away · Columbus Crew1:0
- 10.09away · Los Angeles FC0:2
- 10.10CF Montréal2:1
- 27.09away · Nashville SC0:2
- 20.09away · St. Louis City1:3
- 13.09away · Orlando City0:3
- 10.09Nashville SC2:1
Head to head
- 14.03.2026Toronto FC — Red Bull New York1:1
- 26.06.2025Toronto FC — Red Bull New York1:1
- 23.03.2025Red Bull New York — Toronto FC2:1
- 03.10.2024Toronto FC — Red Bull New York1:4
- 23.06.2024Red Bull New York — Toronto FC3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | LA Galaxy | 29 | 9 | -11 | 36 |
| 18, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Red Bull New York | 28 | 10 | -14 | 36 |
| 19 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | +4 | 33 |
| 22 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | -5 | 32 |
| 23 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | -11 | 32 |
| 24 | Austin FC | 28 | 7 | -15 | 31 |
MLS on the same day
- 2625482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.5
- 3628361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 363034XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- 4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:23.6
- 1524612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 4029311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
- 3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →