Nigeria NPFL, round 9 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Rivers United FC — Barau
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Rivers United FC are clear favourites: 68% against 10% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 31%, both teams to score — 28%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Rivers United FC are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rivers United FC — Barau What is xG? | 1.5–0.4 | |
| Rivers United FC not to lose | 90% | |
| Barau not to lose | 32% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 28% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 72% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 31% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 69% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Rivers United FC
- Rivers United FC goals
- Barau goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Abia Warriors0:0
- 04.10Ikorodu City2:0
- 30.09away · Katsina United1:1
- 28.09away · Ranchers Bees0:0
- 24.09Kun Khalifat5:0
- 11.10Enugu Rangers2:2
- 04.10away · Bendel Insurance1:4
- 26.09away · Sporting Lagos1:1
- 23.09Abia Warriors2:0
- 19.09away · Ikorodu City0:0
Head to head
- 25.02.2026Rivers United FC — Barau1:0
- 19.12.2025Barau — Rivers United FC4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enugu Rangers | 8 | 5 | +5 | 17 |
| 2 | Rivers United FC | 8 | 4 | +11 | 16 |
| 3 | Plateau United | 8 | 4 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Barau | 8 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Doma United | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- 6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- 363232XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:11.7
- 6323141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- 6324141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
- 4929221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
- 6920111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 731791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →