Russian Premier League, round 11 · Monday, 19 October, MSK
Rodina — FC Orenburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 19 October
In short
Evenly matched: Rodina 32%, FC Orenburg 37%, draw 31%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Rodina — No. 15, 5 pts; FC Orenburg — No. 7, 12 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Rodina: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rodina — FC Orenburg What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Rodina not to lose | 63% | |
| FC Orenburg not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Rodina
- Rodina goals
- FC Orenburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · CSKA Moscow0:3
- 16.09Rubin Kazan1:1
- 11.09away · Krylya Sovetov Samara1:2
- 06.09away · Dynamo Makhachkala0:2
- 02.09away · Spartak Moscow1:3
- 10.10Dynamo Makhachkala4:0
- 17.09FC Krasnodar0:0
- 12.09away · Dinamo Moscow0:1
- 06.09Akron Togliatti2:2
- 02.09Rubin Kazan1:1
Head to head
- 18.08.2026Rodina — FC Orenburg1:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 10 | 2 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 10 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Akron Togliatti | 10 | 1 | -8 | 8 |
| 15, Relegation | Rodina | 10 | 1 | -15 | 5 |
| 16, Relegation | Fakel | 10 | 0 | -12 | 3 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →