Russian Premier League, round 11 · Monday, 19 October, MSK
Rodina — FC Orenburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 19 October
In short
FC Orenburg are slightly stronger: 42% against 27%, draw 31%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rodina — FC Orenburg What is xG? | 1.2–1.6 | |
| Rodina not to lose | 58% | |
| FC Orenburg not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Rodina
- Rodina goals
- FC Orenburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · CSKA Moscow0:3
- 16.09Rubin Kazan1:1
- 11.09away · Krylya Sovetov Samara1:2
- 06.09away · Dynamo Makhachkala0:2
- 02.09away · Spartak Moscow1:3
- 10.10Dynamo Makhachkala4:0
- 17.09FC Krasnodar0:0
- 12.09away · Dinamo Moscow0:1
- 06.09Akron Togliatti2:2
- 02.09Rubin Kazan1:1
Head to head
- 18.08.2026Rodina — FC Orenburg1:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 10 | 2 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 10 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Akron Togliatti | 10 | 1 | -8 | 8 |
| 15, Relegation | Rodina | 10 | 1 | -15 | 5 |
| 16, Relegation | Fakel | 10 | 0 | -12 | 3 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →