French Ligue 2, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stade Geoffroy-Guichard
Saint-Étienne — Rodez
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Saint-Étienne to win (64%), came true.
Saint-Étienne are clear favourites: 64% against 16% for the opponent, draw 21%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Saint-Étienne are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Saint-Étienne — Rodez What is xG? | 2.2–1.1 | |
| Saint-Étienne not to lose | 84% | |
| Rodez not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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Form
- 19.09away · Metz2:2
- 12.09away · Dunkerque1:2
- 05.09Montpellier3:1
- 31.08away · Dijon3:2
- 22.08Grenoble4:0
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Rodez — Saint-Étienne2:1
- 16.08.2025Saint-Étienne — Rodez4:0
- 10.05.2024Saint-Étienne — Rodez1:1
- 12.08.2023Rodez — Saint-Étienne2:1
- 29.10.2022Saint-Étienne — Rodez0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Saint-Étienne | 8 | 6 | +13 | 19 |
| 2, Promotion | Red Star | 8 | 5 | +3 | 17 |
| 14 | Grenoble | 8 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Rodez | 8 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Boulogne | 8 | 0 | -2 | 6 |
Next matches
- Red StarSaint-Étienne17 October · Ligue 23130402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
- RodezMontpellier19 October · Ligue 2352936XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
Ligue 2 on the same day
- 2530452The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.2.2
- 3128412The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →