French Ligue 2, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stade Gabriel-Montpied
Clermont Foot — Red Star
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:3Came true
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Red Star to win (45%), came true.
Red Star are slightly stronger: 45% against 25%, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Red Star are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Clermont Foot — Red Star What is xG? | 0.9–1.3 | |
| Clermont Foot not to lose | 55% | |
| Red Star not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 38% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 62% |
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Form
- 18.09away · Grenoble1:1
- 11.09Boulogne0:0
- 04.09away · Dunkerque1:1
- 28.08Sochaux0:0
- 21.08Dijon1:1
Head to head
- 20.03.2026Clermont Foot — Red Star0:1
- 22.11.2025Red Star — Clermont Foot2:2
- 25.04.2025Red Star — Clermont Foot1:1
- 24.09.2024Clermont Foot — Red Star1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Saint-Étienne | 8 | 6 | +13 | 19 |
| 2, Promotion | Red Star | 8 | 5 | +3 | 17 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Montpellier | 8 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Boulogne | 8 | 0 | -2 | 6 |
| 17, Relegation | Clermont Foot | 8 | 0 | -3 | 6 |
| 18, Relegation | Laval | 8 | 1 | -7 | 5 |
Next matches
- LavalClermont Foot16 October · Ligue 24229281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Red StarSaint-Étienne17 October · Ligue 23130402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
Ligue 2 on the same day
- 3128412The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.5
- 6421161The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →