French Ligue 2, round 9 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Red Star — Saint-Étienne
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Saint-Étienne are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 30%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Saint-Étienne are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Red Star — Saint-Étienne What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Red Star not to lose | 60% | |
| Saint-Étienne not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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Form
- 10.10away · Clermont Foot3:2
- 19.09away · Guingamp3:1
- 14.09Metz1:0
- 04.09away · Laval2:1
- 29.08Reims1:4
- 10.10Rodez2:0
- 19.09away · Metz2:2
- 12.09away · Dunkerque1:2
- 05.09Montpellier3:1
- 31.08away · Dijon3:2
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Saint-Étienne — Red Star2:0
- 01.11.2025Red Star — Saint-Étienne2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Saint-Étienne | 8 | 6 | +13 | 19 |
| 2, Promotion | Red Star | 8 | 5 | +3 | 17 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Montpellier | 8 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
Ligue 2 on the same day
- 5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 4429271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →