Major League Soccer (MLS), round 33 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
San Jose Earthquakes — Real Salt Lake
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
San Jose Earthquakes are slightly stronger: 44% against 29%, draw 26%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings San Jose Earthquakes are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: San Jose Earthquakes — No. 7, 46 pts; Real Salt Lake — No. 22, 32 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
- San Jose Earthquakes: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: San Jose Earthquakes 3 wins, Real Salt Lake 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes — Real Salt Lake What is xG? | 1.9–1.4 | |
| San Jose Earthquakes not to lose | 71% | |
| Real Salt Lake not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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- San Jose Earthquakes goals
- Real Salt Lake goals
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Form
- 11.10away · Colorado Rapids1:1
- 27.09Portland Timbers3:1
- 20.09Los Angeles FC2:2
- 13.09Houston Dynamo FC1:0
- 10.09away · San Diego FC3:2
- 11.10away · Philadelphia Union1:2
- 27.09New England Revolution3:0
- 24.09away · Seattle Sounders FC0:2
- 20.09Vancouver Whitecaps0:3
- 13.09New York City FC0:2
Head to head
- 27.07.2025Real Salt Lake — San Jose Earthquakes2:1
- 23.02.2025San Jose Earthquakes — Real Salt Lake4:0
- 06.10.2024San Jose Earthquakes — Real Salt Lake0:1
- 25.08.2024Real Salt Lake — San Jose Earthquakes0:2
- 17.09.2023San Jose Earthquakes — Real Salt Lake2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | +7 | 47 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | +10 | 46 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Charlotte FC | 28 | 13 | +10 | 46 |
| 21 | San Diego FC | 28 | 8 | -3 | 32 |
| 22 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | -5 | 32 |
| 23 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | -11 | 32 |
MLS on the same day
- LA GalaxyAustin FCpreliminary5324231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
- Colorado RapidsChicago Fire FCpreliminary4028331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →