Brazilian Serie A, round 32 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Santos — Bahia
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Santos are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 28%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Santos are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Santos — Bahia What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| Santos not to lose | 71% | |
| Bahia not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Santos
- Santos goals
- Bahia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Atlético-MG1:2
- 09.10Flamengo2:2
- 03.10away · São Paulo2:1
- 20.09away · Remo2:1
- 17.09away · Atlético-MG2:4
- 12.10Mirassol1:0
- 09.10away · Palmeiras0:1
- 21.09away · Athletico Paranaense1:2
- 15.09Remo2:1
- 05.09away · RB Bragantino3:2
Head to head
- 26.04.2026Bahia — Santos2:2
- 24.08.2025Bahia — Santos2:0
- 07.04.2025Santos — Bahia2:2
- 19.09.2023Bahia — Santos1:2
- 01.06.2023Bahia — Santos1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 8, Copa Sudamericana | Santos | 30 | 11 | +1 | 42 |
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- Vasco da GamaCorinthianspreliminary4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- PalmeirasRB Bragantinopreliminary6422131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- ChapecoenseFluminensepreliminary2126532The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →