Brazilian Serie A, round 32 · Sunday, 25 October, 00:30 MSK

Vasco da Gama — Corinthians

Model prediction for 25 October

Vasco da Gama49%

Draw28%

Corinthians23%

Model estimate at 02:25 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Vasco da Gama are clear favourites: 49% against 23% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

By the strength ratings Vasco da Gama are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Vasco da Gama — Corinthians What is xG?		1.5–1.0
Vasco da Gama not to lose		77%
Corinthians not to lose		51%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		50%
Both teams to score: no		50%
Total over 2.5		45%
Total under 2.5		55%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama goals
Corinthians goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Vasco da Gama

11.10Remo0:0
08.10away · Botafogo2:1
20.09Coritiba5:0
16.09Santa Fe2:0
12.09away · Grêmio2:1

Corinthians

11.10away · Palmeiras1:4
08.10away · Internacional1:2
20.09Fluminense1:3
17.09Estudiantes0:1
13.09away · Flamengo1:2

Head to head

26.04.2026Corinthians — Vasco da Gama1:0
22.12.2025Vasco da Gama — Corinthians1:2
18.12.2025Corinthians — Vasco da Gama0:0
24.08.2025Vasco da Gama — Corinthians2:3
06.04.2025Corinthians — Vasco da Gama3:0

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
13	Vitória	30	10	6	14	33–44	-11	36
14	Vasco da Gama	29	9	8	12	36–42	-6	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	34–44	-10	33
16	Internacional	30	7	11	12	33–38	-5	32
17, Relegation	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31–38	-7	32
18, Relegation	Grêmio	30	7	10	13	32–40	-8	31

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

00:30
PalmeirasRB Bragantinopreliminary
642213
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
01:30
ChapecoenseFluminensepreliminary
212653
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
04:00
SantosBahiapreliminary
432829
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →