Brazilian Serie A, round 32 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Chapecoense — Fluminense
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Fluminense are clear favourites: 53% against 21% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Fluminense are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chapecoense — Fluminense What is xG? | 1.0–1.6 | |
| Chapecoense not to lose | 47% | |
| Fluminense not to lose | 79% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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- Handicap Chapecoense
- Chapecoense goals
- Fluminense goals
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Form
- 13.10Athletico Paranaense1:4
- 08.10away · Vitória0:4
- 19.09away · Atlético-MG1:1
- 12.09Internacional1:2
- 07.09away · Corinthians2:1
- 11.10away · Flamengo0:1
- 09.10Coritiba4:0
- 20.09away · Corinthians3:1
- 16.09away · Club Atlético Platense1:2
- 12.09away · Atlético-MG1:3
Head to head
- 27.04.2026Fluminense — Chapecoense2:1
- 10.12.2021Fluminense — Chapecoense3:0
- 08.09.2021Chapecoense — Fluminense1:2
- 27.10.2019Fluminense — Chapecoense1:1
- 14.06.2019Chapecoense — Fluminense1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | +14 | 53 |
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 19, Relegation | Remo | 30 | 5 | -15 | 25 |
| 20, Relegation | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | -31 | 18 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- Vasco da GamaCorinthianspreliminary4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- PalmeirasRB Bragantinopreliminary6422131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- SantosBahiapreliminary4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →