Brazilian Serie A, round 31 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
São Paulo — Vasco da Gama
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Evenly matched: São Paulo 35%, Vasco da Gama 36%, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings São Paulo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: São Paulo — No. 10, 39 pts; Vasco da Gama — No. 14, 35 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Vasco da Gama: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: São Paulo 2 wins, Vasco da Gama 3.
- Days of rest before the match: São Paulo 7, Vasco da Gama 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: São Paulo — Vasco da Gama What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| São Paulo not to lose | 64% | |
| Vasco da Gama not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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- Vasco da Gama goals
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Form
- 11.10Vitória2:1
- 08.10away · Cruzeiro0:2
- 03.10Santos1:2
- 20.09Internacional1:0
- 16.09Boca Juniors1:1
- 14.10away · Boca Juniors1:0
- 11.10Remo0:0
- 08.10away · Botafogo2:1
- 20.09Coritiba5:0
- 16.09Santa Fe2:0
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Vasco da Gama — São Paulo2:1
- 03.11.2025Vasco da Gama — São Paulo0:2
- 13.06.2025São Paulo — Vasco da Gama1:3
- 17.10.2024São Paulo — Vasco da Gama3:0
- 23.06.2024Vasco da Gama — São Paulo4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| 11, Copa Sudamericana | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | -10 | 39 |
| 13 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | -11 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | -10 | 33 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- 6620131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 6721121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 3329382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- 5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 2829432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →