Nigeria NPFL, round 3 · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK
Shooting Stars — Kano Pillars
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0:0Missed
In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Shooting Stars to win (59%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 59% fails in about 41 matches out of 100 on average.
Shooting Stars are clear favourites: 59% against 17% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Shooting Stars are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Shooting Stars: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Shooting Stars — Kano Pillars What is xG? | 1.6–0.8 | |
| Shooting Stars not to lose | 83% | |
| Kano Pillars not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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- Shooting Stars goals
- Kano Pillars goals
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Form
- 04.10Nasarawa United0:0
- 30.09away · Enyimba2:4
- 27.09away · Warri Wolves FC0:1
- 23.09Katsina United2:0
- 20.09away · Plateau United1:3
- 03.10Sporting Lagos1:1
- 27.09Enyimba0:0
- 23.09away · Inter Lagos1:1
- 20.09Doma United4:1
- 06.09Niger Tornadoes3:2
Head to head
- 01.03.2026Shooting Stars — Kano Pillars2:1
- 12.10.2025Kano Pillars — Shooting Stars1:1
- 11.05.2025Kano Pillars — Shooting Stars3:1
- 14.12.2024Shooting Stars — Kano Pillars2:0
- 08.04.2024Kano Pillars — Shooting Stars1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Katsina United | 8 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Kano Pillars | 8 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Nasarawa United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 16 | Ranchers Bees | 8 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | Shooting Stars | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Kun Khalifat | 8 | 2 | -7 | 8 |
Next matches
- Kun KhalifatShooting Stars11 October · Nigeria NPFL5825181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.4
- Plateau UnitedKano Pillars11 October · Nigeria NPFL6323141The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →