Polish Ekstraklasa, round 10 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Tarczyński Arena
Śląsk Wrocław — Lech Poznań
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:4Came true
In short
Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Lech Poznań to win (54%), came true.
Lech Poznań are clear favourites: 54% against 20% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lech Poznań are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Śląsk Wrocław — Lech Poznań What is xG? | 1.2–2.0 | |
| Śląsk Wrocław not to lose | 46% | |
| Lech Poznań not to lose | 80% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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Form
- 18.09away · Wisła Kraków1:2
- 12.09Korona Kielce1:2
- 06.09away · Jagiellonia Białystok1:2
- 28.08away · Legia Warszawa1:1
- 22.08Widzew Łódź3:3
- 20.09Radomiak Radom5:1
- 17.09away · Crystal Palace0:4
- 12.09away · Górnik Zabrze1:2
- 06.09Raków Częstochowa1:0
- 03.09Jagiellonia Białystok2:1
Head to head
- 29.03.2025Śląsk Wrocław — Lech Poznań3:1
- 22.09.2024Lech Poznań — Śląsk Wrocław1:0
- 24.02.2024Lech Poznań — Śląsk Wrocław0:0
- 20.08.2023Śląsk Wrocław — Lech Poznań3:1
- 26.02.2023Śląsk Wrocław — Lech Poznań2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | +13 | 22 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Lech Poznań | 9 | 7 | +13 | 22 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 9 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 16, Relegation | Radomiak Radom | 10 | 2 | -14 | 8 |
| 17, Relegation | Śląsk Wrocław | 10 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 18, Relegation | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 1 | -12 | 3 |
Next matches
- Lech PoznańBayer Leverkusen15 October · Europa League4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- Motor LublinŚląsk Wrocław17 October · Ekstraklasa4428281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 4829231The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 363034XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:1.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →