UEFA Europa League, round 2 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · Enea Stadion

Lech Poznań — Bayer Leverkusen

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Model prediction for 15 October

Lech Poznań25%
Draw25%
Bayer Leverkusen50%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites: 50% against 25% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Lech Poznań are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • League table: Lech Poznań — No. 35, 0 pts; Bayer Leverkusen — No. 7, 3 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Bayer Leverkusen: 3 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lech Poznań — Bayer Leverkusen What is xG?1.2–1.7
Lech Poznań not to lose50%
Bayer Leverkusen not to lose75%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

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Form

Lech Poznań

  • 10.10away · Śląsk Wrocław4:1
  • 20.09Radomiak Radom5:1
  • 17.09away · Crystal Palace0:4
  • 12.09away · Górnik Zabrze1:2
  • 06.09Raków Częstochowa1:0

Bayer Leverkusen

  • 10.10away · Mainz 054:3
  • 20.09RB Leipzig2:0
  • 16.09NK Celje2:0
  • 12.09away · Augsburg2:2
  • 05.09Union Berlin4:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
6, Straight to the round of 16Ferencváros11003–1+23
7, Straight to the round of 16Bayer Leverkusen11002–0+23
8, Straight to the round of 16Benfica11002–0+23
34Viktoria Plzeň10010–3-30
35Lech Poznań10010–4-40
36NEC Nijmegen10010–5-50

Season 2026/27

Full table

Europa League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →