Uzbekistan Super League, round 23 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK
Sogdiana — Lokomotiv Tashkent
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:3Came true
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Lokomotiv Tashkent to win (43%), came true.
Lokomotiv Tashkent are slightly stronger: 43% against 31%, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 74%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sogdiana — Lokomotiv Tashkent What is xG? | 1.8–2.0 | |
| Sogdiana not to lose | 57% | |
| Lokomotiv Tashkent not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 26% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 73% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 27% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sogdiana
- Sogdiana goals
- Lokomotiv Tashkent goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 20.09AGMK1:2
- 10.09away · Xorazm0:0
- 05.09Mashal Muborak5:2
- 23.08away · Neftchi Fargona0:3
- 18.08Qizilqum Zarafshon2:1
- 20.09Neftchi Fargona0:1
- 11.09Mashal Muborak3:0
- 04.09away · Navbahor Namangan1:1
- 26.08Bunyodkor Tashkent4:1
- 20.08away · Xorazm3:1
Head to head
- 27.07.2026Lokomotiv Tashkent — Sogdiana3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 23 | 13 | +18 | 45 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 23 | 11 | +9 | 38 |
| 5 | Nasaf Qarshi | 23 | 10 | +13 | 37 |
| 10 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 23 | 9 | -7 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 23 | 8 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon-2011 | 23 | 7 | -9 | 27 |
Next matches
- Bunyodkor TashkentSogdiana16 October · Uzbekistan Super League3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.6
- Lokomotiv TashkentNasaf Qarshi17 October · Uzbekistan Super League3628361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- 2927442The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →