Paraguayan Primera Division · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio Gunther Vogel
Sportivo San Lorenzo — Sportivo Trinidense
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Sportivo Trinidense to win (68%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 68% fails in about 32 matches out of 100 on average.
Sportivo Trinidense are clear favourites: 68% against 11% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 34%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sportivo Trinidense are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Sportivo San Lorenzo: winless in 5.
- Last 3 meetings: Sportivo San Lorenzo 0 wins, Sportivo Trinidense 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sportivo San Lorenzo — Sportivo Trinidense What is xG? | 0.5–1.8 | |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo not to lose | 32% | |
| Sportivo Trinidense not to lose | 89% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 34% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 66% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sportivo San Lorenzo
- Sportivo San Lorenzo goals
- Sportivo Trinidense goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 03.10away · Guaraní1:1
- 28.09Recoleta0:0
- 20.09Olimpia0:3
- 11.09away · Sportivo Ameliano0:1
- 06.092 de Mayo1:2
- 05.10Luqueño3:2
- 27.09Cerro Porteño2:1
- 18.09Guaraní0:1
- 13.09away · Recoleta3:1
- 06.09Olimpia1:2
Head to head
- 03.08.2026Sportivo Trinidense — Sportivo San Lorenzo3:0
- 17.04.2026Sportivo Trinidense — Sportivo San Lorenzo2:1
- 20.02.2026Sportivo San Lorenzo — Sportivo Trinidense1:1
Next matches
- LuqueñoSportivo San Lorenzo19 October · Paraguayan Primera5726171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- Sportivo TrinidenseLibertad19 October · Paraguayan Primera4030311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →