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Scottish Premiership, round 11 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK

St. Johnstone — Motherwell

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 28 October

St. Johnstone31%
Draw29%
Motherwell40%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Motherwell are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 29%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Motherwell are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: St. Johnstone — Motherwell What is xG?1.2–1.4
St. Johnstone not to lose60%
Motherwell not to lose69%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.549%
Total under 2.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap St. Johnstone
  • St. Johnstone goals
  • Motherwell goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

St. Johnstone

  • 11.10away · Aberdeen1:0
  • 19.09Falkirk1:1
  • 09.09Celtic0:1
  • 06.09Hibernian2:1
  • 02.09away · Dundee FC1:1

Motherwell

  • 11.10Celtic0:2
  • 19.09away · Dundee FC1:2
  • 15.09Aberdeen0:4
  • 05.09away · Rangers0:1
  • 02.09Dundee United3:0

Head to head

  • 26.04.2025Motherwell — St. Johnstone3:2
  • 25.01.2025St. Johnstone — Motherwell2:1
  • 09.11.2024Motherwell — St. Johnstone2:1
  • 31.08.2024St. Johnstone — Motherwell1:2
  • 19.05.2024Motherwell — St. Johnstone1:2

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Championship roundDundee FC841311–8+313
5, Championship roundSt. Johnstone832310–10011
6, Championship roundDundee United832310–11-111
8, Relegation roundAberdeen82247–9-28
9, Relegation roundMotherwell82249–13-48
10, Relegation roundHibernian82158–12-47

Season 2026/27

Full table

Scottish Premiership on the same day

  • AberdeenFalkirkpreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5
  • CelticDundee Unitedpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.7
  • Dundee FCKilmarnockpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
  • St. MirrenHibernianpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
  • Heart of MidlothianRangerspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →