Major League Soccer (MLS), round 28 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Energizer Park
St. Louis City — LA Galaxy
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
6:2Came true
In short
Final score 6:2: the model's most likely outcome, St. Louis City to win (61%), came true.
St. Louis City are clear favourites: 61% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings St. Louis City are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- St. Louis City: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: St. Louis City 3 wins, LA Galaxy 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: St. Louis City — LA Galaxy What is xG? | 2.3–1.2 | |
| St. Louis City not to lose | 83% | |
| LA Galaxy not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 69% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 31% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap St. Louis City
- St. Louis City goals
- LA Galaxy goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 01.10away · Red Bull New York3:0
- 20.09Toronto FC3:1
- 17.09away · Colorado Rapids3:0
- 13.09Minnesota United4:2
- 10.09away · Portland Timbers2:2
- 27.09Colorado Rapids3:2
- 20.09away · Minnesota United3:2
- 13.09Seattle Sounders FC1:1
- 10.09away · Vancouver Whitecaps0:3
- 06.09New England Revolution2:1
Head to head
- 23.07.2026LA Galaxy — St. Louis City1:3
- 14.06.2025St. Louis City — LA Galaxy3:3
- 10.03.2025LA Galaxy — St. Louis City0:3
- 01.09.2024St. Louis City — LA Galaxy2:1
- 17.03.2024LA Galaxy — St. Louis City3:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | +31 | 51 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | +16 | 50 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Inter Miami CF | 28 | 13 | +18 | 49 |
| 16, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 17, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | LA Galaxy | 29 | 9 | -11 | 36 |
| 18, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Red Bull New York | 28 | 10 | -14 | 36 |
Next matches
- St. Louis CityVancouver Whitecaps15 October · MLS3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
- LA GalaxyPortland Timbers15 October · MLS4227311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →