Norwegian Eliteserien, round 23 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Sparebanken Norge Arena Kristiansand
Start — Hamarkameratene
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In short
Final score 2:4: the model's most likely outcome, Start to win (50%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.
Start are clear favourites: 50% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.2).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Start are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Start — Hamarkameratene What is xG? | 1.9–1.3 | |
| Start not to lose | 76% | |
| Hamarkameratene not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Start
- Start goals
- Hamarkameratene goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · Tromsø2:3
- 13.09Molde1:5
- 05.09away · Rosenborg0:4
- 30.08Kristiansund2:2
- 16.08away · Brann0:3
Head to head
- 26.04.2026Hamarkameratene — Start2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | KFUM | 22 | 8 | -9 | 28 |
| 11 | Hamarkameratene | 22 | 7 | -13 | 26 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 22 | 6 | -6 | 24 |
| 15, Relegation | Kristiansund | 22 | 5 | -21 | 19 |
| 16, Relegation | Start | 22 | 4 | -24 | 16 |
Next matches
- HamarkamerateneBodø/Glimt17 October · Eliteserien717762The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.7
- MoldeStart18 October · Eliteserien7018121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.7
Eliteserien on the same day
- 2830422The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
- 3628362The most likely outcome came true: 22:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 0:1.3.6
- 3528372The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.3.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →