Uzbekistan Super League, round 26 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Surkhon-2011 — Nasaf Qarshi
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Nasaf Qarshi are clear favourites: 45% against 25% for the opponent, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nasaf Qarshi are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Surkhon-2011 — No. 12, 27 pts; Nasaf Qarshi — No. 5, 37 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Nasaf Qarshi: 4 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Surkhon-2011 — Nasaf Qarshi What is xG? | 0.9–1.4 | |
| Surkhon-2011 not to lose | 55% | |
| Nasaf Qarshi not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Surkhon-2011
- Surkhon-2011 goals
- Nasaf Qarshi goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Qizilqum Zarafshon0:0
- 20.09Kokand 19121:0
- 09.09away · Neftchi Fargona1:2
- 04.09away · Bunyodkor Tashkent1:0
- 25.08AGMK0:0
- 09.10Dinamo Samarkand2:1
- 20.09away · Andijon4:1
- 09.09Bunyodkor Tashkent3:0
- 04.09Neftchi Fargona6:2
- 26.08away · Qizilqum Zarafshon0:1
Head to head
- 20.03.2026Nasaf Qarshi — Surkhon-20110:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 23 | 11 | +9 | 38 |
| 5 | Nasaf Qarshi | 23 | 10 | +13 | 37 |
| 6 | Buxoro | 23 | 11 | +4 | 37 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 23 | 8 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon-2011 | 23 | 7 | -9 | 27 |
| 13 | Kokand 1912 | 23 | 5 | -8 | 23 |
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- Mashal MuborakDinamo Samarkandpreliminary1622622The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.9
- Navbahor NamanganAndijonpreliminary6122161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →