Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · BUKO Stadion
Telstar — ADO Den Haag
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In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Telstar to win (47%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 47% fails in about 53 matches out of 100 on average.
Telstar are clear favourites: 47% against 24% for the opponent, draw 29%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Telstar — ADO Den Haag What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| Telstar not to lose | 76% | |
| ADO Den Haag not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Telstar
- Telstar goals
- ADO Den Haag goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · AZ Alkmaar0:1
- 13.09away · SC Heerenveen0:0
- 09.09away · FC Twente0:1
- 06.09Cambuur2:2
- 30.08Ajax0:4
- 19.09Cambuur1:1
- 12.09away · FC Twente0:2
- 06.09Fortuna Sittard2:3
- 30.08away · Feyenoord2:2
- 23.08away · Go Ahead Eagles1:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | -15 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | -10 | 3 |
| 18, Relegation | Willem II | 8 | 0 | -16 | 2 |
Next matches
- ADO Den HaagPSV Eindhoven17 October · Eredivisie815772The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.8
- TelstarFeyenoord17 October · Eredivisie1423632The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.5
Eredivisie on the same day
- 7019111The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.3.5
- 3928321The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.4
- 383032XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:5Final score 1:5. Model's score: 1:1.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →