Liga MX (Mexico), round 12 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Toluca — Atlético de San Luis
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Toluca are clear favourites: 73% against 9% for the opponent, draw 18%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Toluca are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Toluca — No. 2, 20 pts; Atlético de San Luis — No. 15, 12 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Toluca 4 wins, Atlético de San Luis 0, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Toluca 8, Atlético de San Luis 6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toluca — Atlético de San Luis What is xG? | 2.3–0.9 | |
| Toluca not to lose | 91% | |
| Atlético de San Luis not to lose | 27% | |
| No draw | 82% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Toluca
- Toluca goals
- Atlético de San Luis goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Tigres2:3
- 27.09away · Cruz Azul3:3
- 21.09Santos Laguna2:3
- 16.09away · Puebla1:0
- 13.09Atlas5:2
- 12.10Santos Laguna1:2
- 27.09away · Pumas3:2
- 20.09Necaxa3:1
- 15.09away · León0:2
- 06.09Chivas0:3
Head to head
- 13.04.2026Toluca — Atlético de San Luis1:1
- 30.08.2025Atlético de San Luis — Toluca1:3
- 17.04.2025Atlético de San Luis — Toluca0:1
- 25.08.2024Toluca — Atlético de San Luis2:1
- 20.04.2024Atlético de San Luis — Toluca1:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Liguilla (playoffs) | CF América | 10 | 6 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Liguilla (playoffs) | Toluca | 11 | 6 | +10 | 20 |
| 3, Liguilla (playoffs) | Querétaro FC | 10 | 6 | +7 | 20 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Atlético de San Luis | 11 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante | 11 | 2 | -5 | 11 |
Liga MX on the same day
- 4227301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 5527191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 73% will not happen in roughly 27 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →