Liga MX (Mexico), round 13 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Toluca — Tijuana
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Toluca are clear favourites: 68% against 13% for the opponent, draw 19%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Toluca are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toluca — Tijuana What is xG? | 2.3–1.1 | |
| Toluca not to lose | 87% | |
| Tijuana not to lose | 32% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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- Handicap Toluca
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- Tijuana goals
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Form
- 10.10away · Tigres2:3
- 27.09away · Cruz Azul3:3
- 21.09Santos Laguna2:3
- 16.09away · Puebla1:0
- 13.09Atlas5:2
Head to head
- 14.02.2026Toluca — Tijuana1:0
- 23.10.2025Tijuana — Toluca0:0
- 11.01.2025Tijuana — Toluca2:4
- 15.09.2024Toluca — Tijuana4:0
- 25.02.2024Toluca — Tijuana2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Liguilla (playoffs) | CF América | 10 | 6 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Liguilla (playoffs) | Toluca | 11 | 6 | +10 | 20 |
| 3, Liguilla (playoffs) | Querétaro FC | 10 | 6 | +7 | 20 |
| 7, Liguilla (playoffs) | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | +1 | 17 |
| 8, Liguilla (playoffs) | Tijuana | 10 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
Liga MX on the same day
- PueblaMonterreypreliminary2630452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- AtlasCF Américapreliminary2329482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- PachucaCruz Azulpreliminary3130402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- Santos LagunaPumaspreliminary3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →