Ligue 1, round 9 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Troyes — Le Mans
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Le Mans are clear favourites: 54% against 23% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 70%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Le Mans are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Troyes — Le Mans What is xG? | 1.5–2.1 | |
| Troyes not to lose | 46% | |
| Le Mans not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 30% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 69% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 31% |
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Form
- 11.10Marseille0:2
- 19.09away · Angers0:2
- 13.09away · Lille0:2
- 06.09Strasbourg2:6
- 29.08away · Lorient2:1
- 10.10away · Paris Saint-Germain1:3
- 19.09Lorient2:1
- 13.09Lens2:2
- 05.09away · Nice1:1
- 30.08away · Rennes2:3
Head to head
- 31.01.2026Troyes — Le Mans0:2
- 03.10.2025Le Mans — Troyes2:2
Table
Ligue 1 on the same day
- NiceRennespreliminary3925361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LorientBrestpreliminary4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- LyonAngerspreliminary7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →