Ligue 1, round 9 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK

Troyes — Le Mans

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Model prediction for 31 October

Troyes23%
Draw24%
Le Mans54%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Le Mans are clear favourites: 54% against 23% for the opponent, draw 24%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.

Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 70%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Le Mans are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Troyes — Le Mans What is xG?1.5–2.1
Troyes not to lose46%
Le Mans not to lose77%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes70%
Both teams to score: no30%
Total over 2.569%
Total under 2.531%

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Form

Troyes

  • 11.10Marseille0:2
  • 19.09away · Angers0:2
  • 13.09away · Lille0:2
  • 06.09Strasbourg2:6
  • 29.08away · Lorient2:1

Le Mans

  • 10.10away · Paris Saint-Germain1:3
  • 19.09Lorient2:1
  • 13.09Lens2:2
  • 05.09away · Nice1:1
  • 30.08away · Rennes2:3

Head to head

  • 31.01.2026Troyes — Le Mans0:2
  • 03.10.2025Le Mans — Troyes2:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
13Marseille62049–8+16
14Le Mans613210–12-26
15Toulouse61329–11-26
16, Relegation play-offAuxerre62048–16-86
17, RelegationTroyes61144–13-94
18, RelegationLe Havre60244–8-42

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ligue 1 on the same day

  • NiceRennespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
  • LorientBrestpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
  • LyonAngerspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →