Belgian Pro League, round 9 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Union St.Gilloise — Cercle Brugge
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Union St.Gilloise are clear favourites: 70% against 10% for the opponent, draw 20%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Union St.Gilloise are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Union St.Gilloise — No. 4, 20 pts; Cercle Brugge — No. 17, 3 pts. A gap of 17 pts.
- Union St.Gilloise: unbeaten in 5; Cercle Brugge: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Union St.Gilloise 2 wins, Cercle Brugge 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Union St.Gilloise — Cercle Brugge What is xG? | 2.1–0.8 | |
| Union St.Gilloise not to lose | 90% | |
| Cercle Brugge not to lose | 30% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Union St.Gilloise
- Union St.Gilloise goals
- Cercle Brugge goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10OH Leuven1:1
- 20.09away · Royal Antwerp2:0
- 17.09away · Viktoria Plzeň3:0
- 12.09Lommel5:0
- 05.09away · Sporting Charleroi3:2
- 10.10Anderlecht1:2
- 19.09away · Sporting Charleroi2:3
- 12.09away · OH Leuven1:1
- 06.09Gent0:3
- 29.08Lommel0:1
Head to head
- 26.12.2025Cercle Brugge — Union St.Gilloise1:1
- 22.11.2025Union St.Gilloise — Cercle Brugge2:0
- 08.12.2024Cercle Brugge — Union St.Gilloise0:0
- 27.10.2024Union St.Gilloise — Cercle Brugge1:3
- 19.05.2024Cercle Brugge — Union St.Gilloise1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Sporting Charleroi | 8 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Union St.Gilloise | 8 | 6 | +18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | -10 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | -7 | 3 |
| 18, Relegation | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | -16 | 3 |
Belgian Pro League on the same day
- GenkStandard Liègepreliminary6421151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Club BruggeSt.Truidenpreliminary7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.7
- GentAnderlechtpreliminary4728251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →