J1 League (Japan), round 13 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
V-Varen Nagasaki — Tokyo Verdy
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
V-Varen Nagasaki are slightly stronger: 40% against 29%, draw 30%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: V-Varen Nagasaki — No. 14, 9 pts; Tokyo Verdy — No. 20, 4 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Tokyo Verdy: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: V-Varen Nagasaki — Tokyo Verdy What is xG? | 1.3–1.1 | |
| V-Varen Nagasaki not to lose | 71% | |
| Tokyo Verdy not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap V-Varen Nagasaki
- V-Varen Nagasaki goals
- Tokyo Verdy goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · JEF United Chiba1:1
- 19.09Cerezo Osaka1:1
- 12.09Nagoya Grampus2:0
- 06.09away · Vissel Kobe1:3
- 02.09Gamba Osaka2:2
- 11.10Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:2
- 19.09away · Urawa Red Diamonds1:3
- 13.09JEF United Chiba1:1
- 06.09away · Cerezo Osaka0:0
- 02.09Vissel Kobe0:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
J1 League on the same day
- Yokohama F.MarinosKawasaki Frontalepreliminary362936XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:22.8
- JEF United ChibaAvispa Fukuokapreliminary333038XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.4
- Machida ZelviaGamba Osakapreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →