J1 League (Japan), round 13 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
JEF United Chiba — Avispa Fukuoka
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: JEF United Chiba 33%, Avispa Fukuoka 38%, draw 30%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: JEF United Chiba — No. 19, 5 pts; Avispa Fukuoka — No. 17, 7 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 2 meetings: JEF United Chiba 0 wins, Avispa Fukuoka 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: JEF United Chiba — Avispa Fukuoka What is xG? | 1.2–1.3 | |
| JEF United Chiba not to lose | 62% | |
| Avispa Fukuoka not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap JEF United Chiba
- JEF United Chiba goals
- Avispa Fukuoka goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10V-Varen Nagasaki1:1
- 19.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse1:2
- 13.09away · Tokyo Verdy1:1
- 06.09Gamba Osaka2:0
- 02.09Fagiano Okayama FC1:2
- 10.10Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
- 19.09Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:1
- 12.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse0:1
- 05.09Mito Hollyhock1:1
- 02.09Urawa Red Diamonds2:3
Head to head
- 06.06.2026JEF United Chiba — Avispa Fukuoka1:2
- 30.05.2026Avispa Fukuoka — JEF United Chiba2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
J1 League on the same day
- Yokohama F.MarinosKawasaki Frontalepreliminary362936XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:22.8
- V-Varen NagasakiTokyo Verdypreliminary4030291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- Machida ZelviaGamba Osakapreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →