J1 League (Japan), round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Vissel Kobe — Machida Zelvia
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Vissel Kobe are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Vissel Kobe are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vissel Kobe — Machida Zelvia What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Vissel Kobe not to lose | 72% | |
| Machida Zelvia not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Vissel Kobe
- Vissel Kobe goals
- Machida Zelvia goals
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Form
- 09.10away · Kashiwa Reysol2:4
- 20.09away · Gamba Osaka1:0
- 11.09Kashima Antlers2:1
- 06.09V-Varen Nagasaki3:1
- 02.09away · Tokyo Verdy2:0
- 10.10away · Kyoto Sanga FC1:0
- 20.09Kashiwa Reysol2:4
- 12.09Yokohama F.Marinos1:1
- 06.09away · Nagoya Grampus3:1
- 02.09Kawasaki Frontale2:1
Head to head
- 10.08.2025Machida Zelvia — Vissel Kobe2:0
- 20.04.2025Vissel Kobe — Machida Zelvia1:0
- 26.06.2024Vissel Kobe — Machida Zelvia0:0
- 13.04.2024Machida Zelvia — Vissel Kobe1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
J1 League on the same day
- Sanfrecce HiroshimaShimizu S-Pulsepreliminary7218101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Kashima AntlersKashiwa Reysolpreliminary3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Tokyo VerdyAvispa Fukuokapreliminary363233XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.8
- Gamba OsakaKyoto Sanga FCpreliminary4427291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →