J1 League (Japan), round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Shimizu S-Pulse
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are clear favourites: 74% against 9% for the opponent, draw 17%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sanfrecce Hiroshima are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Sanfrecce Hiroshima — No. 2, 20 pts; Shimizu S-Pulse — No. 10, 13 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 3 wins in a row; Shimizu S-Pulse: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 4 meetings: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0 wins, Shimizu S-Pulse 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Shimizu S-Pulse What is xG? | 2.1–0.7 | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to lose | 91% | |
| Shimizu S-Pulse not to lose | 26% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals
- Shimizu S-Pulse goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10away · Tokyo Verdy2:0
- 19.09away · Avispa Fukuoka1:0
- 12.09Cerezo Osaka6:1
- 06.09away · Fagiano Okayama FC2:3
- 02.09Nagoya Grampus3:0
- 11.10away · Mito Hollyhock2:1
- 19.09JEF United Chiba2:1
- 12.09Avispa Fukuoka1:0
- 06.09away · Kawasaki Frontale1:3
- 02.09FC Tokyo1:1
Head to head
- 11.04.2026Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Shimizu S-Pulse1:1
- 22.03.2026Shimizu S-Pulse — Sanfrecce Hiroshima3:1
- 10.08.2025Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Shimizu S-Pulse0:0
- 26.02.2025Shimizu S-Pulse — Sanfrecce Hiroshima1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
J1 League on the same day
- Kashima AntlersKashiwa Reysolpreliminary362935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- Tokyo VerdyAvispa Fukuokapreliminary353233XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.1
- Vissel KobeMachida Zelviapreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Gamba OsakaKyoto Sanga FCpreliminary4627261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →