J1 League (Japan), round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Tokyo Verdy — Avispa Fukuoka
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Tokyo Verdy 36%, Avispa Fukuoka 33%, draw 32%.
The model expects few goals: 1.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 28%, both teams to score — 37%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tokyo Verdy — Avispa Fukuoka What is xG? | 0.9–0.9 | |
| Tokyo Verdy not to lose | 67% | |
| Avispa Fukuoka not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 37% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 63% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 28% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 72% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Tokyo Verdy
- Tokyo Verdy goals
- Avispa Fukuoka goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:2
- 19.09away · Urawa Red Diamonds1:3
- 13.09JEF United Chiba1:1
- 06.09away · Cerezo Osaka0:0
- 02.09Vissel Kobe0:2
- 10.10Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
- 19.09Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:1
- 12.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse0:1
- 05.09Mito Hollyhock1:1
- 02.09Urawa Red Diamonds2:3
Head to head
- 08.11.2025Tokyo Verdy — Avispa Fukuoka0:0
- 31.05.2025Avispa Fukuoka — Tokyo Verdy0:0
- 20.07.2024Avispa Fukuoka — Tokyo Verdy0:1
- 28.04.2024Tokyo Verdy — Avispa Fukuoka0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
J1 League on the same day
- Sanfrecce HiroshimaShimizu S-Pulsepreliminary7218101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Kashima AntlersKashiwa Reysolpreliminary3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Vissel KobeMachida Zelviapreliminary4428281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- Gamba OsakaKyoto Sanga FCpreliminary4427291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →