Brazilian Serie A, round 32 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Vitória — Athletico Paranaense
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Vitória 38%, Athletico Paranaense 33%, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Vitória — No. 13, 36 pts; Athletico Paranaense — No. 3, 53 pts. A gap of 17 pts.
- Athletico Paranaense: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Vitória 2 wins, Athletico Paranaense 3.
- Days of rest before the match: Vitória 13, Athletico Paranaense 11.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vitória — Athletico Paranaense What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| Vitória not to lose | 67% | |
| Athletico Paranaense not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Vitória
- Vitória goals
- Athletico Paranaense goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · São Paulo1:2
- 08.10Chapecoense4:0
- 20.09Cruzeiro1:3
- 13.09away · Mirassol2:2
- 08.09Grêmio1:0
- 13.10away · Chapecoense4:1
- 09.10Atlético-MG2:2
- 21.09Bahia2:1
- 12.09away · Coritiba3:3
- 06.09away · Cruzeiro1:3
Head to head
- 07.08.2026Vitória — Athletico Paranaense4:0
- 04.08.2026Athletico Paranaense — Vitória2:0
- 27.04.2026Athletico Paranaense — Vitória3:1
- 03.11.2024Athletico Paranaense — Vitória1:2
- 01.07.2024Vitória — Athletico Paranaense0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | +14 | 53 |
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | -11 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- CruzeiroRemopreliminary721991The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- MirassolSão Paulopreliminary4529261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- InternacionalBotafogopreliminary5625191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →