Brazilian Serie A, round 29 · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Estádio Manoel Barradas
Vitória — Chapecoense
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4:0Came true
In short
Final score 4:0: the model's most likely outcome, Vitória to win (55%), came true.
Vitória are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Vitória are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vitória — Chapecoense What is xG? | 1.7–0.9 | |
| Vitória not to lose | 81% | |
| Chapecoense not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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- All totals
- Handicap Vitória
- Vitória goals
- Chapecoense goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 20.09Cruzeiro1:3
- 13.09away · Mirassol2:2
- 08.09Grêmio1:0
- 03.09Vasco da Gama0:2
- 30.08away · Atlético-MG1:2
- 19.09away · Atlético-MG1:1
- 12.09Internacional1:2
- 07.09away · Corinthians2:1
- 31.08away · Grêmio1:3
- 24.08São Paulo1:0
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Chapecoense — Vitória1:1
- 25.11.2023Chapecoense — Vitória3:1
- 25.07.2023Vitória — Chapecoense1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | -11 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 19, Relegation | Remo | 30 | 5 | -15 | 25 |
| 20, Relegation | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | -31 | 18 |
Next matches
- São PauloVitória11 October · Brasileirao5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- ChapecoenseAthletico Paranaense13 October · Brasileirao2327502The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
Brasileirao on the same day
- 4628261The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 5226221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.5
- 4827251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 5126231The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 5227211The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →