Polish Ekstraklasa, round 11 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Zagłębie Lubin — Jagiellonia Białystok
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In short
Evenly matched: Zagłębie Lubin 35%, Jagiellonia Białystok 35%, draw 30%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Zagłębie Lubin — No. 9, 15 pts; Jagiellonia Białystok — No. 10, 12 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Jagiellonia Białystok: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Zagłębie Lubin 1 win, Jagiellonia Białystok 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Zagłębie Lubin — Jagiellonia Białystok What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| Zagłębie Lubin not to lose | 65% | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Zagłębie Lubin
- Zagłębie Lubin goals
- Jagiellonia Białystok goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Cracovia1:3
- 20.09Wisła Płock0:2
- 15.09away · Raków Częstochowa3:2
- 12.09GKS Katowice2:1
- 07.09away · Wieczysta Kraków1:1
- 10.10Górnik Zabrze1:3
- 20.09Legia Warszawa1:3
- 16.09away · Olympiacos1:2
- 11.09away · Wisła Kraków0:2
- 06.09Śląsk Wrocław2:1
Head to head
- 23.05.2026Jagiellonia Białystok — Zagłębie Lubin1:0
- 30.11.2025Zagłębie Lubin — Jagiellonia Białystok0:0
- 21.04.2025Jagiellonia Białystok — Zagłębie Lubin1:3
- 19.10.2024Zagłębie Lubin — Jagiellonia Białystok1:3
- 20.04.2024Zagłębie Lubin — Jagiellonia Białystok1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zagłębie Lubin | 10 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 9 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia | 10 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 5926161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- 6920111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →