Kazakhstan Premier League, round 28 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK
Zhenis — Atyrau
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:2Missed
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Zhenis to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Zhenis are clear favourites: 51% against 21% for the opponent, draw 29%.
The model expects few goals: 1.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 30%, both teams to score — 36%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Zhenis are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Zhenis — Atyrau What is xG? | 1.2–0.7 | |
| Zhenis not to lose | 79% | |
| Atyrau not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 36% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 64% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 30% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 70% |
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- Atyrau goals
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Form
- 18.09away · Okzhetpes Kokshetau1:3
- 12.09FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk3:1
- 09.09away · Kairat Almaty0:3
- 05.09away · Aktobe0:1
- 29.08FC Altai Oskemen1:0
- 17.09Ordabasy Shymkent0:3
- 12.09away · Kaisar Kyzylorda0:1
- 05.09away · FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk1:0
- 30.08FC Astana2:3
- 16.08Okzhetpes Kokshetau0:2
Head to head
- 20.03.2026Atyrau — Zhenis0:0
- 18.10.2025Atyrau — Zhenis1:1
- 21.06.2025Zhenis — Atyrau2:0
- 21.09.2024Atyrau — Zhenis2:1
- 02.06.2024Zhenis — Atyrau0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ulytau | 27 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 9 | Zhenis | 27 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspiy Aktau | 27 | 9 | -8 | 32 |
| 11 | FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk | 27 | 7 | -9 | 28 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 26 | 5 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 26 | 6 | -10 | 26 |
Next matches
- AtyrauFC Yelimay14 October · Kazakhstan Premier League3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.3
- Tobol KostanayZhenis17 October · Kazakhstan Premier League5226221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- 4429271The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 4427291The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
- 2828452The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 89831The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →