Swiss National League (hockey) · Friday, 9 October, 20:45 MSK · PostFinance Arena

Bern — Biel

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Model prediction and result

4:2Came true

Bern48%

Draw in regulation22%

Biel30%

Model estimate at 19:57 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:2: the model's most likely outcome, Bern to win (60% incl. overtime), came true.

Bern are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

Bern are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bern — Biel		2.8–2.3
Bern to win (incl. OT and shootout)		60%
Biel to win (incl. OT and shootout)		40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Bern
Bern goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Bern

03.10away · Rapperswil-Jona3:4 OT
02.10Servette2:3 SO
29.09away · Fribourg2:5
25.09Ajoie2:3 OT
22.09away · EHC Kloten4:1

Biel

03.10Davos4:3
02.10away · Lausanne4:7
29.09away · Zurich3:6
27.09Servette0:2
24.09away · EHC Kloten6:0

Head to head

14.03.2026Bern — Biel4:0
12.03.2026Biel — Bern4:3
28.02.2026Bern — Biel2:3
10.01.2026Biel — Bern1:2
03.12.2025Bern — Biel6:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Ambri-Piotta	10	4	1	1	4	26–32	-6	15
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Bern	9	3	1	3	2	27–26	+1	14
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Zug	7	4	0	1	2	25–15	+10	13
12	Rapperswil-Jona	11	2	2	1	6	28–42	-14	11
13, Relegation play-off	Biel	10	3	0	1	6	31–35	-4	10
14, Relegation play-off	EHC Kloten	11	2	1	1	7	23–40	-17	9

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

20:45
Ambri-PiottaBern10 October · National League
5050
2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
20:45
BielLugano10 October · National League
5446
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.5

National League on the same day

20:45
DavosEHC Kloten
7525
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:1.5.0
20:45
Langnau TigersRapperswil-Jona
6238
1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:2.5.5
20:45
LuganoZurich
5050
2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.4.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →