Swiss National League (hockey) · Friday, 9 October, 20:45 MSK · Cornèr Arena

Lugano — Zurich

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Model prediction and result

2:3 OTCame true

Lugano39%

Draw in regulation23%

Zurich38%

Model estimate at 19:57 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Zurich to win (50% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: Lugano 50%, Zurich 50% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lugano — Zurich		2.5–2.5
Lugano to win (incl. OT and shootout)		50%
Zurich to win (incl. OT and shootout)		50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Lugano
Lugano goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Lugano

07.10away · Lausanne5:2
04.10away · Ajoie4:5
02.10Rapperswil-Jona5:2
29.09away · Langnau Tigers3:4
26.09Ambri-Piotta3:5

Zurich

03.10Lausanne3:2 OT
29.09Biel6:3
26.09EHC Kloten3:2
25.09away · Ambri-Piotta6:3
22.09away · Ajoie4:2

Head to head

27.03.2026Lugano — Zurich1:2
25.03.2026Zurich — Lugano4:0
23.03.2026Lugano — Zurich4:5
21.03.2026Zurich — Lugano3:0
05.03.2026Lugano — Zurich1:4

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Zurich	10	7	3	0	0	42–24	+18	27
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Servette	11	5	2	2	2	33–29	+4	21
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	36–33	+3	15
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Lausanne	11	4	1	1	5	34–38	-4	15

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

20:45
BielLugano10 October · National League
5446
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
20:45
ZurichFribourg10 October · National League
6139
1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.6

National League on the same day

20:45
BernBiel
6040
1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:2, exactly right.5.1
20:45
DavosEHC Kloten
7525
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:1.5.0
20:45
Langnau TigersRapperswil-Jona
6238
1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:2.5.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →