AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 1 November, MSK

Chicago Wolves — Texas Stars

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Model prediction for 1 November

Chicago Wolves39%
Draw in regulation21%
Texas Stars40%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Chicago Wolves 49%, Texas Stars 51% including overtime.

5.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 58%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.9 and 2.9.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Chicago Wolves — Texas Stars2.9–2.9
Chicago Wolves to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Texas Stars to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)58%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)42%

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Form

Chicago Wolves

  • 11.10away · Grand Rapids Griffins1:5
  • 11.10Manitoba Moose1:6
  • 04.10away · Manitoba Moose3:8
  • 03.10away · Manitoba Moose0:3
  • 20.06away · Toronto Marlies3:4

Texas Stars

  • 12.10away · Hershey Bears1:6
  • 11.10away · Hershey Bears1:2
  • 04.10Iowa Wild3:4 SO
  • 03.10Iowa Wild4:3 SO
  • 06.05away · Chicago Wolves1:6

Head to head

  • 06.05.2026Chicago Wolves — Texas Stars6:1
  • 03.05.2026Chicago Wolves — Texas Stars4:5 OT
  • 03.05.2026Chicago Wolves — Texas Stars2:1
  • 01.05.2026Texas Stars — Chicago Wolves4:5 OT
  • 29.04.2026Texas Stars — Chicago Wolves2:0

Full record: 29 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−PtsP%
24Abbotsford Canucks411211–15-43.375
25Texas Stars41129–15-63.375
26Rockford IceHogs31026–8-22.333
31Lehigh Valley Phantoms30128–15-71.167
32Chicago Wolves40045–22-170.000

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss, ranked by points percentage

Full table

AHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →