AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Ontario Reign — Tucson Roadrunners
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ontario Reign are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.4 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 51%.
Why
- Ontario Reign are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.5.
Facts
- League table: Ontario Reign — No. 12, 4 pts; Tucson Roadrunners — No. 19, 4 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Ontario Reign 4 wins, Tucson Roadrunners 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ontario Reign — Tucson Roadrunners | 2.9–2.5 | |
| Ontario Reign to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 58% | |
| Tucson Roadrunners to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 42% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 51% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 49% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ontario Reign
- Ontario Reign goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 12.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds3:2 OT
- 04.10Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 03.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds6:5 OT
- 10.05Coachella Valley Firebirds2:3 OT
- 08.05away · Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 11.10away · San Jose Barracuda4:1
- 10.10away · San Jose Barracuda7:4
- 05.10Colorado Eagles3:5
- 04.10Colorado Eagles0:2
- 19.04Henderson Silver Knights5:4
Head to head
- 29.03.2026Tucson Roadrunners — Ontario Reign4:2
- 28.03.2026Tucson Roadrunners — Ontario Reign2:3
- 05.03.2026Ontario Reign — Tucson Roadrunners4:1
- 23.02.2026Tucson Roadrunners — Ontario Reign3:5
- 22.02.2026Tucson Roadrunners — Ontario Reign2:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grand Rapids Griffins | 5 | 3 | +4 | 7 | .700 |
| 12 | Ontario Reign | 3 | 2 | -2 | 4 | .667 |
| 13 | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | 4 | 2 | +8 | 5 | .625 |
| 18 | Hartford Wolf Pack | 5 | 3 | -3 | 6 | .600 |
| 19 | Tucson Roadrunners | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 | .500 |
| 20 | Bakersfield Condors | 4 | 2 | +1 | 4 | .500 |
AHL on the same day
- Chicago WolvesTexas Starspreliminary49512The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.8
- San Diego GullsHenderson Silver Knightspreliminary47532The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.9
- Belleville SenatorsToronto Marliespreliminary43572The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.9
- Utica CometsHamilton Hammerspreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:26.0
- Lehigh Valley PhantomsProvidence Bruinspreliminary40602The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.3
- Springfield ThunderbirdsHartford Wolf Packpreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →