Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Ilves — Jokerit
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Ilves are clear favourites: 79% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.
Why
- Ilves are more dangerous in attack: 3.3 expected goals against 1.7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ilves — Jokerit | 3.3–1.7 | |
| Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 79% | |
| Jokerit to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 21% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 42% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 58% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ilves
- Ilves goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Jokerit3:0
- 09.10Lukko1:5
- 07.10away · Vaasan Sport1:2
- 03.10Kiekko-Espoo6:4
- 29.09Jukurit3:2
- 10.10Ilves0:3
- 08.10IFK Helsinki3:2 OT
- 03.10away · SaiPa2:3
- 02.10away · Tappara2:3 OT
- 29.09Hameenlinna3:0
Head to head
- 10.10.2026Jokerit — Ilves0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Ilves | 12 | 8 | +12 | 26 |
| 2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Jukurit | 14 | 6 | +7 | 24 |
| 15, Relegation play-off | Vaasan Sport | 11 | 3 | -11 | 13 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Jokerit | 13 | 2 | -17 | 10 |
| 17, Relegation | KooKoo | 12 | 1 | -27 | 4 |
Liiga on the same day
- 56441The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
- 60401The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
- 51491The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.9
- 60401The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
- 63371The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2
- 37632The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →