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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 17 October, MSK

Jukurit — Tappara

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Model prediction for 17 October

Jukurit28%
Draw in regulation22%
Tappara50%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Tappara are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.

Why

  • Tappara are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Jukurit — Tappara2.1–2.7
Jukurit to win (incl. OT and shootout)37%
Tappara to win (incl. OT and shootout)63%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)39%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)61%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Jukurit
  • Jukurit goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Jukurit

  • 10.10Karpat2:1 OT
  • 09.10away · KooKoo1:4
  • 07.10Assat0:1
  • 03.10KalPa2:1 OT
  • 29.09away · Ilves2:3

Tappara

  • 10.10TPS Turku4:3 SO
  • 09.10away · KalPa3:2
  • 02.10Jokerit3:2 OT
  • 30.09KooKoo3:0
  • 26.09SaiPa2:4

Head to head

  • 04.03.2026Tappara — Jukurit3:1
  • 27.01.2026Jukurit — Tappara2:3
  • 26.11.2025Tappara — Jukurit4:3
  • 22.11.2025Jukurit — Tappara2:3 OT
  • 15.03.2025Jukurit — Tappara2:6

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves12810336–24+1226
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit14630536–29+724
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAssat12612330–27+322
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • AssatTPS Turku
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • IlvesJokerit
    1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.0
  • KalPaPelicans
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
  • KarpatKooKoo
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.9
  • LukkoKiekko-Espoo
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
  • SaiPaIFK Helsinki
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →